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Ronald Muhlenkamp, the Founder and President of Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc.,
spoke to the members on "The Sign Posts of Change: Economics - Rules - Markets."
The recession we've come through in 2008-2009 is similar to "normal, cyclical"
recessions in many, but not all, respects. This most recent recession differed from a
"normal, cyclical" recession due to the credit crisis and resulting bailouts. While the
drivers of this recession have mostly been resolved, the hangover will be with us for a
while. There are several sign posts that need to be watched by us to determine the
strength and duration of the economic recovery. Most importantly the recovery depends
on people being willing to work and produce, and employers being willing to hire. The
incentives occur naturally, but can be negated, usually by taxes and regulation. Whether
those incentives are about to be negated remains an open question. He provided
attendees with a booklet, "What's the New Normal?" which is a summary of his
presentation. Copies are available from the Club Board of Directors.